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Archive for the ‘unemployment’ Category

We Need Policy - Not Politics - to Rebuild America

Wednesday, August 25th, 2010

 

This week, House Republican Leader, John Boehner, called on President Obama to fire his economic team.  As recovery wanes, dissatisfaction runs deep, but this public appeal seems more the initiate of a campaign for majority House Speaker than the proffer of solution to the financial downturn that plagues our nation.  While I agree that Timothy Geithner and Lawrence Summers have not delivered on the administration’s promise of economic recovery, we need not a change of the guard and a revamp of rhetoric - we need a business plan to rebuild America.

 

Only changes in policy will ignite job creation and fuel a sustainable economic turnaround. The urgency of transformation is more about principle than people.  Infrastructure issues demand appropriate actions.  We must make a commitment to manufacturing and modify policies to support that pledge.  Many foreign countries subsidize raw materials by as much as 30% - this equates to dumping, not free trade.  Such truth belies America’s inability to compete in the global economy.  We close our eyes to what we choose not to see.  Immediate changes to policy could put Americans to work now, and place our country on the fast track to a sustained recovery.

 

The United States government should subsidize value-added jobs, and mandate their Department of Defense’s $140 billion procurement budget be spent on American manufactured goods.  To witness the wisdom of subsidized employment, we need look no farther than Germany.  Germans take pride in their industrial base; America once shared that sentiment.  Today, Germany’s unemployment rate is 7.6%, 3 million of a total workforce of 42 million.  America’s current 9.5% unemployment rate equals almost 15 million out-of-work citizens. The more accurate count of unemployed hovers at 30 million when including the discouraged workers, the part-timers who long for full-time positions and the permanently unemployed.  Germany has successfully maintained its manufacturing workforce by assisting employers through a program affectionately called “short work.”  In essence, during times of economic distress, workers are granted reduced hours by companies while the German government supports their wages up to 85% of full-time salary. In Germany, they pay their citizens to work - Americans are paid to stay home. Subsidized employment does not equate to additional government or taxpayer costs. Rather, it is the difference between an expensive band-aid and less costly value-added solution; the government contribution to workers’ paychecks is an alternative to unemployment benefits. Companies that would otherwise engage in mass layoffs or liquidate are provided with temporary support to keep workers employed. More companies survive downturns, benefits are shorter in duration and the debate on benefit abuse is eradicated. Each job saved is multiplied by at least 5 more employed as an economic effect on a town or city. Executed properly, this is a win-win.

 

Involuntary unemployment has devastating effects on American workers and families. Studies show job loss correlates to depression and despair to illness, creating a downward spiral of government costs beyond benefits.  Loss of American employment decreases household wealth, reducing consumption of locally manufactured goods and further stifling job creation.  Joblessness, homelessness and hopelessness have enveloped our nation.

 

As November’s mid-term elections approach, politicians will engage in negative debate and critique absent solutions, bringing us no closer to job creation and economic growth.  Rebuilding America must start with a plan, not politics. Subsidized employment and the sole source allocation of Department of Defense dollars to American goods must be followed by trade policies that eradicate foreign advantage.  The Department of Defense’s $140 billion procurement budget equates to revenues of General Electric, America’s second largest employer with more than 300,000 workers.  Buying American could create hundreds of thousands of new jobs.  Rather than political sparring and stonewalling, a more noble approach would be to stand shoulder to shoulder to create employment and rebuild America. A business plan to restructure our economy can be designed — the tools are within our reach.  It starts with a commitment to our nation that overshadows party loyalties and ideological preconceptions.

Dark Days Ahead

Monday, July 12th, 2010

Last week, our nation celebrated its independence, but the liberties so carefully constructed by our founding fathers are threatened by the economic dangers that lie ahead. Freedom cannot thrive in a country so deeply divided.  Most Americans believe government no longer works for them. Under every imaginable economic scenario, this nation faces dark and humbling days ahead. The manner in which we react to this hard truth will determine who we, as a people, will become after this tenure of transformation. We can listen to the banter of partisan rhetoric: the slant, the criticism and the dichotomy of political theories or we can choose to become activists. Very few Main Street Americans can translate the argument between small and big government, for and against rising taxation and whether or not jobs can be created through trade agreements into the immediate needs of their lives. What they do know is that each Thursday the reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics deliver more bad news proving that our beloved country is in crisis and that our people are suffering.  Most troubling to me, however, is the absence of urgency from our elected officials to provide and implement an effective action plan for job creation.

 

More than thirty million unemployed and under-employed Americans (and their family members) feel helpless, desperate and abandoned by Washington politicians who focus their partisan gamesmanship on issues other than the only one that matters most to them—their jobs.  In the past several months, the issue of unemployment has almost entirely centered on the extension of jobless benefits in Congress.  While I do believe that assistance for those in need is humanitarian and necessary, it is imperative that we accept these benefits for what they are – a temporary band-aid on a much larger systemic infrastructure problem - not the rapid job creator Speaker Pelosi claims them to be.       

 

This month, one year ago, I made my last of many visits to Treasury to present a plan designed to sustain and create jobs. I believed then, as I do now, that an economic recovery is not possible until we can curb the tide of unemployment.  Job losses cannot be stemmed until the liquidation of small and mid-sized enterprises (SMEs), which employ 80% of the American workforce, are halted.  Industry in this country must be embraced and accepted as the necessary foundation of our economy. The most direct and rapid solution to sustain and create employment is to incent private enterprise to originate and monetize rescue-financing loans for struggling SMEs and capital starved industrial companies.  We are now painfully aware that neither large banks nor community banks will provide such loans.

 

My rescue loan plan (RLP), as presented, accessed unutilized TARP funds set aside for the PPIP (Public Private Investment Program) Legacy Securities Program. Treasury originally intended $100 billion of TARP funds be used for PPIP programs but, only $30 billion was allocated and less was actually tapped for a plan that was ill conceived and underdeveloped. The RLP would have used $30 billion for equity and debt investments. The program’s blueprint was carefully designed to access structures previously announced and required no additional funding from Congress. The RLP would have saved jobs the old fashioned way, by lending money to companies that without funding would otherwise shut down and liquidate, leaving their employees without salaries and benefits .Without jobs, Americans lose the all important hope for a bright and prosperous future.

 

Unfortunately, the offer of my time and patented portfolio construction models, upon which my Patriarch platform has thrived, seemingly fell on deaf ears. At the time of my visit to Treasury in July of 2009, 1 in 3 unemployed persons were jobless for 27 weeks or more.  Less than one year later, in June of 2010, those individuals made up more than 45% of unemployed persons.  Immediate and early action to stop the bleeding and address the daunting but surmountable obstacles to job creation were overshadowed by the more politicized issues of healthcare and financial reform. 

 

Questionable Wall Street practices and synthetic financial instruments such as credit default swaps hunger for regulation.  However, at the risk of repetition in works of my recent past - the heart, soul and salvation of our nation have never, and will never, reside on Wall Street.  The disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street grows increasingly vast and any economic revival will lie in the recovery and resonance of cities and districts beyond southern Manhattan.  Immediate and aggressive action is needed from our elected officials to address the epidemic of unemployment.  It is a disease whose source must be analyzed and treated to provide long and lasting solutions.  The infrastructure of this nation has been badly injured.  Manufacturing jobs have been reduced by more than 9 million since the start of the decade.  Small and mid-sized businesses struggle to access the necessary working capital to survive.  Healing the plague upon the nation will begin with facing and addressing the truth.  We need an antidote to end the plague of joblessness and that solution rests with helping America’s struggling small and mid-sized businesses.  I hope Washington will hear our call.  America’s future depends on it.

My Latest Huffington Post Piece: “History May Repeat Itself, But Never Exactly”

Wednesday, November 11th, 2009

From the Huffington Post November 11, 2009

History May Repeat Itself, But Never Exactly

By Lynn Tilton

Although the jobless rate in America surprisingly soared to 10.2% with the broader measure of underemployment reaching 17.5%, heights not witnessed since the Great Depression, economists and government maintain economic recovery has commenced and enhanced employment will follow its historic lag.

In order to predict the future, one must always study the past and understand well the present circumstances evaluated. The foretelling of economic events and discharge of policy to assuage recessionary consequences relies heavily upon the study of history and the winding path to the present. And so as economists and government struggle to explain away our jobless economic recovery, they continue to grasp at historic data which demonstrate employment has always lagged as an indicator of economic revival.

The analysis of history in order to understand today or as predictor of what comes requires, above all, extrapolation.  If any one variable in the equation, or if circumstance or environment has been modified, then the resulting analysis will be altered and distinct.  I am troubled by the comparison of today’s economic data to recessions of mid-70s, early-80s and the Great Depression, absent the adjustment for changes in credit markets, interest rates, housing prices, health of banks, size of industrial base and government stimulus.  In order to contrast economic downturns, past and present, multiple variables must be compared simultaneously to discern changeability and predict behaviors.  It is shocking that we so rarely hear or read the grim reports of continued job losses explained within the context of economic elements necessary to understand well or predict accurately the timing of shift from job loss to job creation.

Main Street Americans have been battered by the perfect storm of falling employment, plummeting home prices and inability to access credit. And the storm has left so many homeless, jobless and hopeless.  But we are called upon to be patient and to forbear as history foreshadows that GDP growth leads to job creation and therefore help is near. In support of that request for patience, President Obama signed into law Friday temporary measures to alleviate the pain for Main Street unemployed in form of extensions of benefits and tax credits for home buyers.  It frightens me that we treat the symptoms of joblessness with provisional programs while the epidemic left unaddressed may rapidly create a populace of the permanently unemployed.

In recession, job losses, while painful, are anticipated.  Economic downturns cull weak companies, creating room for the strongest and most innovative to thrive.  The process of creative destruction is perceived as integral to free market economies.  However, this economic collapse is by no means similar to past recessions.  Too many job losses spring from changes in bank lending strategies and too many are casualties of small business liquidations.  The massacre of small business is best manifested in the broad variance in job loss numbers reported by the establishment survey, in contrast to the household survey that seeks to determine whether or not people are working by asking individuals their job status, rather than querying the larger companies that employ them.  During September and October, reported job losses were 263,000 and 785,000 and 190,000 and 585,000 for establishment and household surveys, respectively.  Over the course of 60 days, the differential exceeds 900,000 incremental job losses reflecting, in large part, destruction of very small businesses and the self-employed who are excluded from establishment census. The economy is not in a process of cyclical creative destruction, but rather in the deadly grasp of secular, irreparable economic devastation

As financially impaired banks retrenched from traditional secured lending to small and middle-market enterprises (SMEs) to preserve capital and repair balance sheets, a gaping hole in our financing economy was shaped. The sudden dearth of capital has forced companies that might otherwise rationalize and survive the current economic downturn to radically reduce workforce — layoffs that are permanent as, without capital, companies have no choice but to liquidate.

As we forecast employment, we cannot embrace history without adjustment for the unique economic character of this Great Recession that began in December 2007.  Not since the Great Depression have Americans endured this damaging confluence of events — dearth of credit and bank failures, mass liquidations of businesses, plunging real estate values and high unemployment.  The recessions of mid-70s and early-80s were not equally marred by so many threats. Most troubling to me, however, is that exit from this Great Recession will be the first in history where Americans could not turn to a broad industrial base or to small businesses for the requisite foundation for economic renaissance and job creation.  Manufacturing job losses accelerated in October with 61,000 compared to 45,000 in September. Since 2000, the U.S. has lost over 8 million manufacturing jobs, and since the start of the recession nearly 40% of all job losses have been casualties of a frail and dwindling industrial base. Adding insult to injury, in all previous post-war recoveries, it has been small businesses that fueled job recovery. In this recession, credit remains woefully unavailable to SMEs, impairing not only growth potential but interim survival.  I fear we have ignored the permanence that defines the recent contraction of American jobs and that if rebuilding America’s industrial base and providing capital to SMEs is not quickly addressed, more and more Americans will fill the rank and file of permanently unemployed.  Every great empire in recent times has been built upon a manufacturing economy. The fall of those great empires has been the failure to remember that one fundamental fact.

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Read this at the Huffington Post

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